Published as a new report that is a follow-up of its first quantitative assessment published in 2024, the exercise was carried out with international industrial, technological, economic, and academic experts on CCU and related subjects to understand and quantify the potential of CCU.
Since then, data and modelling improvements have been carried out and led to an updated report that focuses on the new modelling results and adjustments. It includes:
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Modelling of additional mineralisation pathways (i.e., mineralisation of CO2 to produce supplementary cementitious materials, mineralisation of CO2 to produce carbonated concrete aggregates)
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Ex-post calculations of CO as feedstock to produce e-ethanol; CO sources considered were steel-making off-gases, biomass gasification and CO2 conversion
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Detailed modelling of CO2 from biogas upgrading
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Introduction of cost elements (CAPEX, OPEX, fuel costs)
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Configuration of the national context for the implementation of CO2 Value Europe’s Vision Scenario at Member-State level (with the case-study of the Netherlands)
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Additional improvements in the model (update of EUROSTAT latest input data, improved modelling of capture in refineries, improved circularity modelling, and more)
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Various corrections (domestic aviation data, double counting of CCU fuels for energy and non-energy applications in the industry, separation of benefits in terms of emission reduction and feedstock availabilities for the chemical industry, and more)
This new report shows that the CO2 will be captured mainly from biogenic (26%), atmospheric (34%) and process emissions (20%), with around half converted into products, while the rest will be stored underground. Although CCU technologies require significant amounts of low-carbon electricity, they could produce more than half of the EU’s fuel demand by 2050, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, strengthening energy sovereignty and cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Next steps, sectoral and thematic documents as well as a detailed methodology will be published in September 2026.
The report contains the following recommendations:
1. Europe must be more systematic and consistent in including CCU in its legislations to drive down emissions: every EU legislation addressing the transition away from fossil fuels like the Circular Economy Act or the Industrial Accelerator Act must address the scale-up of alternatives like CCU.
2. Create definitions, map carbon availabilities, remove red tape: Europe has the right legislative vehicles in the pipeline to set definitions for sustainable carbon, quantify the sources and revise outdated rules (e.g. allow CO2 to be transported and utilised under MRR), mainstream net zero technologies categories under NZIA, and include CO2-based products in the CO2 market and infrastructure legislation.
3. EU policies must reward CCU to address the cost gap with conventional products: create under ETS revision (and in CBAM) a level playing field between captured carbon and virgin fossil carbon to avoid penalising cleaner alternatives; mobilise instruments to reduce that cost gaps with conventional equivalents (e.g. earmarking of ETS revenues, double-sided auctions, CCfDs, IPCEI for CCU/CCS/CDR).
4. Amending EU legislations to make them fit-for-purpose for CCU deployment: the EU must amend rules around renewable hydrogen and derivatives that have failed to deliver on upscaling solutions that reduce fossil dependency and revise the current rules disincentivising the use of unavoidable industrial CO2 to produce CCU fuels after 2041. Rules for permanent removals through CO2 mineralisation should also be expedited.
5. Create new incentives for fossil-free feedstocks for chemicals: the EU is still not incentivising the uptake of fossil-free textiles, packaging, plastics or cleaning products. Market pull mechanisms for sustainable carbon are a must to change course: the EU should swiftly implement related recommendations from the Critical Chemicals Alliance in the Industrial Accelerator Act.
6. Take stock of progress and shortcomings of current EU rules from ReFuelEU Aviation & FuelEU Maritime: EU rules should build on proposals made under the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan, the Communication AccelerateEU, both of which acknowledged the need for large scale production of sustainable aviation and maritime fuels, by maintaining targets and complementing them with additional derisking mechanisms.
7. Encourage action at national level and build synergies in EU instruments: the EU should encourage countries to take action to support CCU projects on their soil, to map their strategic dependencies on fossils, mobilise new possibilities offered by Clean Industrial State Aid Framework, adopt national strategies on CCU, and assess NECPs based on the promotion of clean techs, including CCU.