According to the DNV Energy Transition Outlook report, which highlights how the country remains a decarbonisation leader globally, the UK will not achieve net zero by 2050 and will still emit 130 MtCO2e (million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) per year, an 84% reduction from 1990.
“The dilemma we face is to balance the energy system whilst in transition. Polarized views can obscure the fundamental reality that the energy sector is deeply intertwined, meaning that it is a monumental challenge to prioritize one area over another unless we take into account all parts of the energy system and the adjacent areas like socio-economic developments, nature and bio-diversity,” said Hari Vamadevan, Senior Vice President, and Regional Director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems, DNV.
“It is not a case of renewables versus oil and gas, it is not supply versus demand, and it is not generation versus transmission – it is all these facets combined to drive a cleaner energy future. Quite simply, we are risking progress by siloing debates around the energy transition, focusing narrowly on individual elements rather than the whole system.
“The UK is making undeniable progress in transforming its energy system, continuing to cement its place as a world leader in decarbonization, but the pace is not yet aligned with climate ambitions, with our outlook forecasting the UK to run on clean electrons by 2060. Our forecast shows strong long-term structural shifts, from falling energy demand to a steep decline in fossil fuel use by 2060. However, without accelerated action in buildings, transport and clean power deployment, the UK risks missing its 2030, 2035 and 2050 targets.”
The report says CCS is key to UK 2050 net zero strategy with the ambition to capture 20–30 MtCO2/yr by 2030 from projects including hydrogen production, low-carbon power plants and industrial decarbonisation. The Government seeks to create a competitive and self-sustaining commercial market with a centralized CO2 transport and storage solution enabling multiple emitter projects.
"Confidence in the short- to medium-term outlook for CCS in the UK has weakened due to the delays in the first emitter projects reaching FID. While government has provided greater visibility on the next wave of CCS clusters, momentum continues to be limited."
DNV forecasts 2 MtCO2/yr of CCS capacity by 2030, significantly short of the target followed by a steep increase to 11.4 MtCO2/yr by 2035 and 37 MtCO2/yr by 2050, mainly driven by expected increase in carbon prices. In the long term, most CCS will be associated with power generation (BECCS, natural gas, and energy from waste). Biogenic CCS increases significantly between 2030–35 and maintains a strong position with 22 MtCO2/yr captured by 2050. UK potential for CO2 injection and storage is large with added potential of offshore infrastructure re-use.
Sarah Kimpton, the report’s co-author and DNV’s Energy Transition Director, said, “What this report outlines is that addressing the energy trilemma and balancing the energy system demands integrated solutions that span technology, infrastructure, policy and behaviour. A clean energy future is not achievable by operating in silos."
“Allocation Round 7 (AR7) has proved the art of the possible when everything aligns, with 14.7 GW awarded across all renewable projects. That wasn’t by chance: that was through connected government policy and business objectives."
“Despite not being on track for these targets, we should remember the UK’s energy transition is moving faster than that of many other countries, whilst facing the same political uncertainty.”